FX Daily Forex Analysis

Forex Analysis ECB Preview

Today's ECB meeting has garnered relatively limited interest in light of the clear signalling given in the Jun meeting.  QE has been tapered after Sep into year end and the forward guidance on rate normalisation puts a late(r) 2019 move on the table and not before.  With some members of the governing council having argued for an earlier move on rates, there is some trepidation that the wording may change on timing, and what 'after the summer of 2019' actually means. We are talking a matter of months here at best, but any change here will naturally spark a knee-jerk reaction in the EUR which is already looking resilient to the downside. 

In the background, the major EU states still consider the slowing in economic activity a temporary development.  Over the coming months and later this year, this could keep the prospects of a firming up in the language - bringing in a rate hike closer in on the horizon - a possibility.  However, with trade wars still a threat to global growth and demand, focusing on the balance of risks is something we also have to watch out for in today's assessment which will translate into policy outlook and market perception on Q2 and beyond.  

Re-investments (of QE) could see some adjustments on maturities, so there are some subtle changes which may be point to some accommodation through maturity and duration.  This is unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR and EUR levels across the board.  

So in summary, expectations are low for today's meeting, and president Draghi's steady hand is likely to win out in keeping the policy outlook unchanged for the most part, if not all of it.